Passed your challenge?
Find out whether your result can be more than luck.
Free · no account · your trades stay in your browser
Free from Fri 23 Oct – remind me
Tape Check takes your trades and computes how many traders with no edge at all, using your rules, your costs and a risk estimated from your trades, would have passed just the same. The rules start from a template; you adjust them to your account.
A pass alone says little.
traders with no edge pass
Example: $50,000 account, target $3,000, max loss $2,000, $700 per trade. Simulated, no edge, costs 0.05 R per trade.
Rule set in detail
Max loss trails at end of day, daily limit $1,000. Simulated: one trade a day, no edge, costs 0.05 R per trade. At the daily limit the day ends, the account stays. In the calculator today: fixed or trailing (intraday) floor; end-of-day trailing follows. The example trader in the calculator risks less per trade and has more rules, so it shows a different number.
How we got this
We simulated 2 million traders with no edge (100 runs of 20,000 each): one trade a day, fixed risk, stop at 1 R, target at 3 R, expectation before costs exactly zero. Then we applied a common rule set: target 4.29 R, max loss 2.86 R trailing at end of day and locked at the starting balance. details
This number holds for this rule set alone. That is why Tape Check computes it for you: with your rules, your risk and your costs. Failed one? Worth a look too: your trades may simply not be enough yet to show an edge.
This number uses the zero-skill computation ZSB-1 v1.0, simulated paths with seed and cost per trade. In the beta the calculator uses a simplified preview computation; its numbers can differ. Not a statement about any firm, about real traders or about payouts. Historical scenario numbers are not forecasts. Method
How it works
- Bring your trades. Choose your platform's trade list as a CSV file, paste a table, or load the example trader. Add your cost per trade.
- Set the rules. Pick a template and adjust: target, max loss, type of floor, daily limit. We name no firm.
- Read the result. In seconds, works offline. You can save the proof receipt as a file.
What you get
Chance-pass rate. “Of 100 traders with no edge, N pass under your rules.” Depends on rules, risk, costs and the shape of your trades (win/loss size, trades per day), not on whether you made money.
In more detail
So it works even with few trades.
Detection limit. “With your 87 trades, an edge is detected with 80 % probability from about 0.55 R per trade upward.” This is not a target.
In more detail
Smaller edges can exist – your trades just aren't enough yet to tell them from chance.
Rank. “You beat 62 of 100 simulated no-edge traders.” Rank is not the probability that you have skill.
Countdown. Roughly how many more trades you need before a small edge (0.1 R per trade) would be measurable.
In more detail
A planning value, preliminary until the strict rule.
Numbers in quotation marks are example values from a synthetic trader.
If your trades swing by about 1 R (fixed stop, 1:1 target), a true edge of 0.1 R per trade takes roughly 1,300 trades to tell apart from luck (error threshold 0.005 two-sided, 80 % power). At a spread of 1.5 R, closer to 3,000. Your countdown in the calculator uses your own spread.
At one trade per day, that is a good five years. Small edges take that long; a few evaluations cannot answer this question – neither with yes nor with no.
What does “R” mean here?
R = profit or loss of a trade divided by what you risked at entry. +1 R means you won as much as you risked.
Free from Fri 23 Oct – remind me
Why you do not have to trust us
- Airplane-mode test. Load the page, switch on airplane mode, compute. It works without a connection; your trades are not sent to our server. To see more: developer tools → Network.
- Recomputable soon. Method, code version and seed are on every calculation receipt. In the beta the calculator uses a simplified preview computation. We will publish the calculation engine as open source; from then on every number can be recomputed.
- We test ourselves, too. 24 of our own strategy ideas fixed in advance and tested, 0 passed so far. That does not mean no edge exists. Our own trading account goes into the register as entry #1 once it is running. All results
What we do not do
No signals. No leaderboard of users. No firm names, no firm presets. No money from firms whose rules we compute. No affiliate program. No profit or pass promises. We describe historical data, we recommend nothing.
Reminder and news
The calculator needs no e-mail. Sign up if you want news: about the launch, new cards or the multi-account report.
Tape Check is free and works worldwide. The optional multi-account report (€49 one-off) launches in the EU before other regions.
Later: multi-account report
| What | For whom | Price (planned, on this website) | From |
|---|---|---|---|
| Report | Anyone running the same trades on several accounts: combined risk, up to 20 accounts. Check your provider's rules on multiple accounts beforehand. | €49 incl. VAT one-off, up to 20 accounts | Beta – purchase from sales launch |
Service description (scope).
US checkout follows later. 18+.